Vice President Sara Duterte saw her lead in early voter preferences for the 2028 presidential race shrink, while Leni Robredo posted a significant surge, according to the latest survey by OCTA Research.
The Q1 2026 “Tugon ng Masa” survey, conducted from March 19 to 25, showed Duterte with 33% preference, down from 38% in the previous quarter.
Robredo, meanwhile, climbed to 21% from 8% in Q4 2025—an increase of 13 percentage points, the largest gain among all potential candidates.
As a result, Duterte’s lead over Robredo narrowed to 12 percentage points from a 30-point gap recorded in late 2025.
Trailing behind the two were Manila Mayor Isko Moreno with 10%, up from 8%, and Senator Raffy Tulfo with 9%, down from 12%. Senator Bam Aquino maintained his 4% rating.
OCTA said 2% of respondents were undecided, while 1% refused to answer. Other personalities accounted for 20%, indicating that voter preferences beyond the top five remain widely fragmented.
The non-commissioned survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above nationwide.
OCTA noted that the survey has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for NCR, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao have margins of error of ±6%, also at a 95% confidence level.
