Party-list shake-up: 47 likely to win one seat, while 18 incumbent may lose

by Philippine Chronicle


MANILA, Philippines (First published May 14; Updated 11 a.m., May 16) — Out of the 63 seats reserved for party-list groups, the top 53 party-lists are likely to secure representation in the 20th Congress, with 47 of them expected to get just one seat each

The four leading groups — Akbayan, Duterte Youth, Tingog and 4Ps — are on track to win three seats each, with ACT-CIS and Ako Bicol each securing two seats. Together, these six parties account for 16 House seats.

This leaves 47 seats, each allocated to the party-lists ranked after the first six, according to partial and unofficial results as of 2:41 p.m. on May 15.

Nineteen of the groups expected to win one seat are either new contenders or returning party-lists, while 28 are incumbent organizations. Among those new are Mamamayang Liberal (ML) and Kamanggagawa Party-List. 

ML, which performed poorly in pre-election surveys, made a surprising turnaround. It currently ranks 14th with over 546,000 votes, or 1.31% of those processed.

Its seat is expected to be filled by former senator Leila de Lima, a staunch Duterte critic who was recently acquitted of illegal drug trade charges.

After spending nearly seven years in detention for crimes she did not commit, de Lima is poised to return to Congress — this time, as a lawmaker beyond prison walls.



















































RankParty-ListPercentVotesNew/Incumbent
7USWAG ILONGGO1.86%776,842Incumbent
8SOLID NORTH PARTY1.83%764,433New
9TRABAHO1.61%671,067New
10CIBAC1.42%593,398Incumbent
11SENIOR CITIZENS1.38%576,614Incumbent
12MALASAKIT@BAYANIHAN1.38%575,341Incumbent
13PPP1.38%574,508New
14ML1.31%546,689New
15FPJ PANDAY BAYANIHAN1.28%533,953New
16UNITED SENIOR CITIZENS1.28%532,853Incumbent
174K1.25%518,726New
18LPGMA1.24%517,182Incumbent
19COOP-NATCCO1.22%509,282Incumbent
20AKO BISAYA1.15%477,589Incumbent
21CWS1.14%476,926Incumbent
22PINOY WORKERS1.14%475,586New
23AGAP1.13%468,776Incumbent
24ASENSO PINOY1.01%422,269New
25AGIMAT1.01%420,641Incumbent
26SAGIP0.97%404,694Incumbent
27TGP0.97%403,625Incumbent
281-RIDER PARTY-LIST0.93%385,344Incumbent
29KAMANGGAGAWA0.92%382,283New
30GP (GALING SA PUSO)0.92%381,350Incumbent
31ALONA0.91%379,851Incumbent
32KAMALAYAN0.91%379,208New
33BICOL SARO0.88%365,888Incumbent
34ACT TEACHERS0.85%353,111Incumbent
35KUSUG TAUSUG0.82%340,002Incumbent
36ONE COOP0.79%331,083New
37KM NGAYON NA0.78%323,591New
38BH – BAGONG HENERASYON0.77%319,362Incumbent
39ABAMIN0.76%315,144New
40TUCP0.75%311,934Incumbent
41KABATAAN0.75%311,671Incumbent
42MAGBUBUKID0.74%309,816New
43APEC0.74%309,495Incumbent
441TAHANAN0.74%309,492New
45AKO ILOCANO AKO0.72%301,179Incumbent
46MANILA TEACHERS0.72%301,012Incumbent
47NANAY0.70%293,294New
48SSS-GSIS PENSYONADO0.70%289,597New
49DUMPER PTDA0.67%279,379Incumbent
50KAPUSO PM0.67%278,476New
51ABANG LINGKOD0.66%274,723Incumbent
52PUSONG PINOY0.64%266,487Incumbent
53SWERTE0.63%261,293New

Note: Figures are based on the processed election returns by media transparency servers, which reached 99.12% as of 2:41 p.m. on May 15.

Incumbent party-lists at risk

Some incumbent party-list groups, however, now face a significant risk of losing their seats in Congress.

One example is Gabriela Women’s Party, which currently ranks 55th with 256,040 votes, accounting for just 0.62% of the votes recorded so far. The party is just 4,000 votes behind the 54th-ranked Philreca and 4,800 shy of Swerte, which holds the 53rd and final likely seat.

Earlier tallies showed Philreca with a chance to secure a seat, but 4Ps’ rise to three seats in the latest count has reduced the number of party-lists eligible for one.

Gabriela Women’s Party has held a seat in the House since 2004. From 2007 to 2016, it consistently secured two seats, ranking among the top party-list groups.

In 2016, it received over 1.36 million votes. But this year’s tally marks a steep decline — mirroring the drop experienced by Bayan Muna, once a top vote-getter, which garnered only around 162,000 votes in the current elections.

Bayan Muna is at risk of being delisted by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) after losing in two consecutive elections, a move that would bar the group from joining the 2028 polls.

The party-list is urging Comelec to investigate and explain the vote discrepancies observed during the initial hours of transmission. It said that its chances of winning a seat were undermined by red-tagging, black propaganda and disinformation meant to discredit the group and its candidates.

Philstar.com estimates that 18 incumbent party-list groups, including Philreca and Gabriela Women’s Party, are likely to lose their House seats.






















RankParty-ListPercentVotes
54PHILRECA0.63%260,427
55GABRIELA0.62%256,522
56ABONO0.61%254,402
57ANG PROBINSIYANO0.60%250,555
59OFW0.59%245,819
61KALINGA0.56%234,965
621-PACMAN0.56%232,124
63ANGAT0.55%228,435
67BHW0.49%202,488
70PROBINSYANO AKO0.44%185,376
72PINUNO0.43%180,966
74API PARTY0.41%170,566
75AGRI0.40%167,836
86ANAKALUSUGAN0.37%153,557
89KABAYAN0.34%141,551
137PATROL0.10%41,470
138TUTOK TO WIN0.10%40,958
141PBA0.08%35,012

Note: Figures are based on the processed election returns by media transparency servers, which reached 99.12% as of 2:41 p.m. on May 15.

Five of these party-lists were previously among the top 20 in the 2022 elections.

Ang Probinsyano ranked 7th in the previous elections, followed closely by Tutok to Win at 8th. But in this year’s party-list race, Tutok to Win has fallen near the bottom, placing 138th out of 155 groups. PBA fared even worse, dropping to 141st from its previous 43rd spot.

Angat Party-list, which claims to represent the peasant sector, placed 17th in 2022 but has now slid to 63rd. Meanwhile, Probinsyano Ako and Api Party-list previously ranked 18th and 20th, respectively. They now place 70th and 74th in the latest tally. 

This estimation is based on the seat allocation formula upheld by the Banat vs. Comelec Supreme Court ruling and the partial, unofficial results reported by media transparency servers as of 2:41 p.m. on May 15, which account for 99.12% of election returns. This represents a total of 56.962 million voters.

See the full list of party-list rankings here.

 

Editor’s Note: The updated list reflects minor changes in the ranking of party-list groups. This slightly affects the number of party-lists that would be eligible for one seat. An earlier report found that 48 party-lists were eligible, with 17 incumbent party-lists likely to lose their seat.





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