Paolo now a severe tropical storm

PAGASA raises Signal No. 3 as Paolo (Matmo) strengthens into a severe tropical storm on Thursday evening, October 2

MANILA, Philippines – Paolo (Matmo) intensified from a tropical storm into a severe tropical storm on Thursday evening, October 2, prompting the weather bureau to raise Signal No. 3 in portions of Northern Luzon.

Paolo’s maximum sustained winds increased from 85 kilometers per hour to 95 km/h, said the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a bulletin issued at 11 pm on Thursday. Its gustiness is now up to 115 km/h from 105 km/h.

“Further intensification into a typhoon prior to landfall is not ruled out,” added PAGASA.

As of 10 pm, Paolo was located 320 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora. It accelerated, moving west at 30 km/h from 20 km/h.

The severe tropical storm is still expected to make landfall in Isabela or Aurora on Friday morning, October 3.

Here are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 pm on Thursday:

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• extreme northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
• central and southern parts of Isabela (Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Guillermo, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, Cordon, Santiago City, Ramon, San Isidro, Alicia, Angadanan, Cauayan City, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Cabatuan, San Mateo, Aurora, San Manuel, Burgos, Gamu, Roxas, Palanan)
• northern part of Quirino (Maddela, Cabarroguis, Aglipay, Saguday, Diffun)
• northern part of Nueva Vizcaya (Diadi, Bagabag, Villaverde, Ambaguio, Quezon, Solano, Bayombong)
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• northern part of Benguet (Mankayan, Buguias, Kabayan, Bakun)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• southern part of mainland Cagayan (Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile, Solana, Iguig, Tuao, Piat, Rizal)
• rest of Isabela
• rest of Quirino
• rest of Nueva Vizcaya
• northern and central parts of Aurora (Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora)
• northeastern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan)
• southern part of Apayao (Conner)
• Kalinga
• Abra
• rest of Benguet
• southern part of Ilocos Norte (Nueva Era, Badoc, Pinili, Batac City, Paoay, Currimao, Banna)
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of mainland Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• rest of Aurora
• northern part of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• northern part of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Lagonoy, Garchitorena, Caramoan, Goa, San Jose, Presentacion)
• Catanduanes
• rest of Apayao
• rest of Ilocos Norte
• Pangasinan
• rest of Nueva Ecija
• northern part of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, Norzagaray, San Rafael)
• Tarlac
• northeastern part of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba, Mabalacat City)
• northern part of Zambales (Palauig, Masinloc, Candelaria, Santa Cruz)

Signal No. 4 would be the highest possible tropical cyclone wind signal if Paolo becomes a typhoon before landfall.

PAGASA added that Paolo’s periphery will bring strong to gale-force gusts to areas not under a wind signal in these regions or provinces:

Friday, October 3

• Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol, Panay Island, Marinduque, Romblon

Saturday, October 4

Significant rain from the severe tropical storm will hit more than two dozen provinces in Luzon on Friday, with floods and landslides expected. Below is PAGASA’s latest rainfall outlook, also as of 11 pm.

Thursday evening, October 2, to Friday evening, October 3

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Isabela, Quirino, Aurora
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, Abra, Zambales, Tarlac, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay

Friday evening, October 3, to Saturday evening, October 4

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Zambales, Tarlac

In addition, there is still a moderate to high risk of “life-threatening” storm surges with peak heights reaching 1 to 3 meters in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon within 36 hours. Check the specific cities and municipalities here.

ALSO ON RAPPLER

Certain seaboards will remain dangerous, especially for small vessels, in the next 24 hours.

Up to very rough seas (travel is risky for all vessels)

• Seaboard of Isabela and northern Aurora – waves up to 6 meters high
• Eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; seaboards of Ilocos Norte – waves up to 5 meters high

Up to rough seas (small vessels should not venture out to sea)

• Seaboards of Ilocos Sur and Babuyan Islands; remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan – waves up to 4.5 meters high
• Seaboard of Batanes; remaining seaboards of Aurora – waves up to 4 meters high
• Seaboards of northern Quezon and Camarines Norte; northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands – waves up to 3.5 meters high
• Northern seaboards of Catanduanes and Camarines Sur; seaboard of La Union; western seaboard of Pangasinan – waves up to 3 meters high

Up to moderate seas (small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible)

• Eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Catanduanes, Rapu-Rapu Islands, and Sorsogon; northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; western seaboard of Zambales; remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands and Pangasinan – waves up to 2 meters high

After Paolo’s expected passage through the landmass of Northern Luzon, it is seen to emerge over the West Philippine Sea on Friday afternoon, then exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday morning, October 4.

Paolo is the country’s 16th tropical cyclone for 2025, and the first for October. During the month, two to four tropical cyclones are estimated to form within or enter PAR. – Rappler.com