BBC Diplomatic Correspondent
BBCHypothesis has swirled over whether or not the Trump-Putin summit will outcome within the map of Ukraine being forcibly – and essentially – altered.
Russia has laid declare to huge components of Ukraine since 2014, when President Vladimir Putin made his first transfer.
On the time, within the area of a brief few months, Moscow carried out the comparatively cold occupation and annexation of the Crimean peninsula.
However that was adopted by a Russian-backed separatist motion within the jap Donbas area – particularly the 2 areas, or “oblasts”, often called Donetsk and Luhansk.
A warfare simmered there for eight years.
Ukraine misplaced round 14,000 troopers and civilians throughout this era.
However in February 2022, Putin launched his full-scale invasion. Russian troops shortly reached the outskirts of Kyiv and seized large swathes of the south, together with large chunks of two extra oblasts, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
The warfare has ebbed and flowed ever since. Russia now controls reasonably much less territory – down from about 27% within the spring of 2022 to round 20% now. Within the east, Russian forces are advancing, however very slowly and at nice price.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine says an unconditional ceasefire is required now. European allies additionally insist on on a halt in combating. US President Donald Trump says that’s what he has been attempting to realize.
However within the run-up to his Alaska summit with Putin, Trump has began speaking, as an alternative about territorial swaps. That has despatched shockwaves throughout Kyiv and Europe.
It isn’t in any respect clear what land Trump is referring to, or what these swaps may appear to be, given that each one the territory in query legally belongs to Ukraine.
As of August 2025, the territory of Ukraine seems to be as follows:
Russia would dearly like to increase its management over the whole lot of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Some reviews recommend that Putin is demanding that Ukraine hand over the remaining territory it controls in each oblasts.
However that may imply Kyiv giving up on locations which tens of hundreds of Ukrainian troopers have died attempting to guard – cities like Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, and a fortified line defending Ukrainian territory to the north and west.
For Kyiv, such a concession could be a bitter capsule to swallow. For Moscow, whose losses have been much more catastrophic, it could be seen as victory.
Zelensky stated on Tuesday that Ukraine “couldn’t” depart the Donbas as Moscow would use the area as a springboard to assault the remainder of the nation.
In current days, Russian forces look like pushing laborious, and making progress, close to the city of Dobropillya. But it surely’s not but clear whether or not this marks a big strategic transfer or simply an effort to point out Trump that Moscow has the higher hand.
What about Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, captured in 2022?
Right here, it is reported, Russia is providing to halt its offensive and freeze the strains.
However would Russia be ready to present any of it again?
On Monday, Trump talked vaguely about “ocean-front property” – presumably a reference to a few of this shoreline, alongside the Sea of Azov or Black Sea.
However that is all a part of Putin’s strategically important land bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea.
It is laborious to see the Russian chief agreeing to present any of it up. Like Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin regards these locations as a part of Russia, and illegally annexed them three years in the past in 4 referendums extensively thought to be a sham.
For Ukraine, and Europe, territorial swaps – at this very early stage of the talks – are a non-starter.
A dialogue about future borders could ultimately come, however solely when the warfare has stopped and Ukraine’s safety has been assured.
