August 21, 2025 | 12:00am
MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine economic system is predicted to develop by 5.5 % this 12 months, slower than initially forecasted amid uncertainties from tariffs being imposed by america, in line with Unicapital Securities Inc.
“When it comes to the general economic system, we’ve got downgraded our GDP (gross home product) forecast down to five.5 % from 6.3 %, beforehand,” Unicapital fairness analysis analyst Peter Louise Garnace mentioned in a briefing yesterday.
Unicapital’s GDP forecast is on the decrease finish of the federal government’s goal of 5.5 to six.5 % for this 12 months.
“We factored right here our assumptions of world commerce uncertainties, in addition to home headwinds within the Philippines,” Garnace mentioned.
The economic system grew at a barely sooner tempo of 5.5 % within the second quarter from 5.4 % within the first quarter, however slower than the 6.5 % growth in the identical quarter final 12 months.
This introduced GDP progress within the first half to five.4 %.
Regardless of the decrease forecast, Unicapital expects the Philippines to proceed to be the second fastest-growing economic system in Southeast Asia, subsequent solely to Vietnam.
Garnace mentioned robust family consumption, authorities expenditures, personal investments, tourism, in addition to regular remittances would assist financial progress within the Philippines.
Based on Garnace, the 19-percent tariff imposed on Philippine items coming into the US is predicted to have an effect on the nation’s exports of coconut, seafood and clothes probably the most.
He additionally mentioned the deliberate imposition of a 100% tariff on its semiconductor imports by the US can be “a giant blow to the export sector within the Philippines.”
“When it comes to commerce stability, we predict that if the tariffs kick in, we predict that the commerce stability would positively contract, on condition that exports will decelerate, which can result in the widening of the commerce deficit of the Philippines,” he mentioned.
Garnace added that Unicapital expects a excessive single-digit decline for each exports and imports this 12 months.
Philippine merchandise exports reached $41.24 billion within the first half, whereas items imported by the Philippines reached $65.22 billion.
This led to a commerce deficit of $23.97 billion from January to June, smaller than the $25.06 billion commerce shortfall in the identical interval final 12 months.
As exports account for a small share within the GDP, Garnace mentioned the impression of the tariffs is predicted to be manageable or restricted.
He mentioned uncertainty, nonetheless, is predicted to persist all all through US President Donald Trump’s time period.
Former commerce undersecretary Rafaelita Aldaba, who now serves as emeritus analysis fellow on the Philippine Institute for Growth Research, mentioned the plan to impose a 100-percent tariff on semiconductor imports would elevate the danger for the Philippines, on condition that semiconductors type a part of the nation’s exports to America.
To navigate this case, Aldaba mentioned it is very important diversify the nation’s buying and selling companions.
“We’d like to have the ability to shift and pivot to different markets the place (we are able to) ship all these new merchandise that we’re presently manufacturing,” she mentioned.
She additionally emphasised the necessity to pursue reforms to scale back the price of doing enterprise within the nation.