November 3, 2025 | 12:00am
MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine economy likely posted a slightly slower growth rate in the third quarter from the previous quarter, according to economists, who cited weather disruptions and flood control corruption issues as factors that may have tempered economic activity.
The median forecast of six economists placed third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.45 percent, slightly below the 5.5 percent expansion posted in the second quarter.
While the median forecast is 5.45 percent, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco said in an email that he expects a sharper slowdown in third quarter GDP growth to 4.8 percent.
“The headline rate will be attacked on multiple fronts – weaker private consumption growth, a continued moderation in government spending growth and a small drag from net exports,” he said.
If the below-consensus third quarter forecast proves to be accurate, he said Pantheon Macroeconomics’ full-year 2025 growth forecast of 5.3 percent may be revised downward.
For Oikonomia Advisory and Research Inc. economist Reinielle Matt Erece, the economy likely grew by 5.3 percent in the third quarter.
“The pessimistic forecast is brought by corruption scandals, causing slowdowns in government spending and potential investment outflows,” he said in an email.
He said that the series of typhoons during the third quarter may have also caused a decline in agricultural output and slower economic activity.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said in an email that he also expects the economy to have posted a 5.3 percent growth in the third quarter, citing the impact of US President Donald Trump’s imposition of higher tariffs on goods and other protectionist measures.
“Other sectors of the economy slowed down recently, largely due to Trump’s higher tariffs or trade war or other protectionist policies and other geopolitical risks especially in the Middle East that slowed down global trade especially exports from many countries worldwide, investments (new and expansion projects), jobs and overall world GDP or economic growth that, in turn, slowed down local economic or GDP growth,” he said.
He said the series of storms and earthquakes that hit the country and the reduced government infrastructure spending amid anti-corruption measures may have also affected growth.
Meanwhile, Ateneo de Manila University assistant professor Ser Percival Peña-Reyes said they are forecasting third quarter economic growth at 5.6 percent, slightly faster than the second quarter growth of 5.5 percent.
For University of Santo Tomas professorial lecturer Emmanuel Lopez, the economy likely posted 5.7 percent growth in the third quarter, citing rising inflation, higher petroleum and utility costs and currency depreciation.